As a mind-boggling heat wave begins to wrap up, we look at some initial numbers
Over 1,500 new monthly records for March and over 500 tied monthly records with virtually no modern equivalent event in any month.
In brief: An absolutely mind-boggling heat wave will finally reach its merciful conclusion this week. It has established thousands of new March temperature records, an event with virtually no modern precedent. Meanwhile, the heat has devastated an already fragile snowpack in the West. We talk about that and have an update on Texas weather...maybe some rain?
Record shattering heat continues
Beginning on roughly March 16th and continuing through yesterday, the U.S. has been absolutely gripped by a record shattering heat wave that has few to no peers in our historical record back to the late 1800s. The geographic scope, intensity, and duration of this event has been absolutely insane. That’s honestly the only word you can use to describe it, insane.
Since the beginning of March, over 1,500 new monthly high temperature records have been established, with over 500 additional monthly records tied (the 495 shown above stops on the 25th and new ones have been met or exceeded since then).
Let’s put this into perspective for a moment. In all of 2025, a hot year mind you, 1,981 monthly high temperature records were set or tied. In all of 2024, just under 2,300 monthly high temperature records were set. In June and July 2021, the last really comparable magnitude heat event to this one, a mere 1,402 monthly records were established.
Some other standout months, most of the warmest on record, that still came up short include October 2024 (673 monthly records), December 2021 (1,154 monthly records), February 2017 (882 monthly records), November 2016 (614 monthly records), June 2012 (912), March 2012 (921), September 2000 (1,095), May 2000 (740), November 1999 (1,182), April 1989 (812), June 1988 (1,001), December 1982 (942), September 1953 (707), December 1939 (1,004), September 1939 (740), August 1936 (658), July 1936 (1,421), July 1934 (880), May 1934 (1,285), June 1933 (671), February 1930 (742).
In other words, there is unlikely any modern comparison to the heat we have seen this month. Phoenix hit 105° for three consecutive days, the hottest on record there for March OR April. Albuquerque’s 91° on March 21 was the hottest for March or April. We could go on and on with this stuff. But it has truly been a remarkable meteorological event to witness. And perhaps a bit frightening in some respects.
Additional record heat is likely today and tomorrow before the pattern really does ease up. A flex of the ridge into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic later this week will allow for a bunch of record warm minimum temperatures but probably very few record highs.
Just a remarkably durable, gigantic weather event.
Snowpack woes
Meanwhile, an already bleak snowpack story has been inconceivably worse because of the heat wave.
The snowpack has been completely decimated. Even in the relatively better off north, the snowpack is pathetic right now. This is going to strain water supply and likely increase wildfire risk as we head toward summer.
Between the heat and lack of snowpack, we’re heading into a summer where the West is going to be in focus for a lot of serious risk. Again, while a lot of attention is focused on severe weather, hurricanes, and flooding across the nation, it may not be apparent to people just how bad this situation is becoming. The West is going to be a flashpoint for a lot of things in the coming months and years.
Texas outlook
As we often do on Mondays, I want to update our Texas readers on the outlook. First off, last week was a poor week in the rainfall department, as expected. Little to no rain fell across the state.
Drought coverage and intensity continues to expand, especially across South Texas. The good news is that the pattern should become more active in Texas this week, with a system Wednesday/Thursday and then perhaps an even stronger one over the weekend.
This rain will come with thunderstorm chances as well, including some severe risk. Much of interior Texas is in a marginal risk for severe storms on Wednesday, the level 1/5 risk.
The severe risk may be a bit higher this weekend, though the SPC is not currently highlighting Texas. Some of the machine learning severe risk tools are beginning to highlight the weekend.
So that’ll be worth monitoring. At the least, the hope is that some drought-relaxing rains will occur across the state. Temperatures won’t be quite as hot this week as they were last week. Houston never got above 86° last week. Last week, Dallas peaked at 87° after hitting 95° last Sunday. San Antonio and Austin both popped a 90 again this past week.
For the upcoming week, our hottest day looks to be Wednesday with highs around or above 90 in San Antonio and Austin and mid-80s in Houston and Dallas. Much cooler weather may arrive this weekend, with forecasts of 60s and 70s behind Saturday or Sunday’s storm system.
Overall, a little bit more typical for spring, albeit still a bit hot.
I would say that this is more than a bit frightening, especially when combined with other record heat events in the last decade.
RE: 1500+ monthly record highs. Is this, "By the end of March, there was a new record high for the month at 1500 recording stations," or "Over the course of March, 1500+ new record highs were set, including multiple ones (sequentially) at the same recording station: i.e., a station that measured a new high for March on 3/3 and an even higher one on 3/5 would count as having 2 new record highs." ?
There is somewhat different information in each way of measuring this, especially since one would expect temperatures to be rising over the course of March as winter fades and spring begins.